Prediction

Ajax Ajax Amsterdam vs. FC Twente Twente

Sunday, March 15th 2011, 14.30 CET

The Eredivisie ends in style this year, the same as the last, with the fight for the title between Ajax Amsterdam and FC Twente. Ajax is by far the most well-known Dutch football club, and most sports tips or football predictions consider only the club’s history before giving a betting tip. It is true that they are one of the best clubs in Netherlands. Actually, Ajax are going for their 30th league title this year. Nevertheless, they haven’t had one since 2003/04.

Twente, on the other hand, won their first league title last year after a fantastic run. They’re still doing very well this season: they just won the KNVB Beker (Dutch cup) from Ajax after a spectacular game. HERE is a good article about that. Long story short, Ajax Amsterdam were leading the football game 2-0, but in the end Twente won 2-3 with a goal in the added-time. That certainly adds to the tension that already exists between the two clubs, dating from last year’s final Eredivisie game.

In Eredivisie, Twente Enschede is first with 31 points, followed by Ajax Amsterdam with 70 points, and then by PSV Eindhoven with 68. And PSV has a much easier game to play against Vitesse, 14th in Eredivisie. This means that each of these teams desperately want to win this last match. If Twente wins against Ajax, the Amsterdammers might finish third, behind Twente and PSV. And with it, they lose their Champions League qualification and will only have to settle for an Europa League chance.

With Twente losing the game and PSV winning, Twente ends up third, with Ajax and PSV first. That’s because although both PSV and Twente will have the same number of points (71), PSV’s goal difference is clearly superior (+45 vs +33). It’s a very tight battle that will take centre stage on Amsterdam Arena in front of tens of thousands of fans (tickets were sold out a week ago).

Ajax Amsterdam come after a good run, winning 6 and losing 3 in their last 9 games. However, they had a bad European campaign, being eliminated from Champions League in the group stages (I admit, their group was really tough), and from Europa League by Spartak Moskva before the quarter finals. Kind of embarrasing actually, because that left their two rivals, PSV and Twente go in the quarter finals (where they both lost).

I think Ajax’s fantastic morale and motivation, and the fact that they’re playing at home will be decisive ahead of today’s game. They were in terrible shape when Martin Jol left them, being replaced by Frank De Boer in December last year. Ever since, Ajax have made a fantastic comeback in the league, and they deserve to win today to put a crown on that. And the football odds are in their favour, both at the bookies, and statistically. They have lost only 2 games out of 16 on Amsterdam Arena this season, and they’re the favourites of many bookies, with sports betting odds of 1.88 on Bwin.

TwenteFC Twente Enschede, on the other hand, has other reasons to win. They won their first league title last season, and now with a new coach Michel Preud’homme, they already have something to be proud of: lifting the KNVB Beker Cup from their fabulos comeback against Ajax last weekend, and winning the Johan Cruijff shield. Basically, if they win the League Title as well, they won all the honors the Eredivisie can give to any club.

And many agree that they deserve this. They proved that last year’s title was not undeserved, and they know they are making history now for one of the newest clubs in Holland (established in 1965). They gained an amazing amount of fans following last season’s performance, fans which will accompany their favourite club in the capital for their most important game this season. They only lost 4 times this season (Ajax lost 5 times), and conceded only 31 goals (Ajax 29). Plus, they won three out of the last five games against the Amsterdammers.

It’s definitely a very difficult game to give a football prediction or soccer tips on. If you need more resources, check this. I would say Ajax will win this one. They have the right motivation (losing to Twente in the Dutch Cup last weekend, and losing the title against them last season), and the crowd in Amsterdam will definitely play a crucial role. Ajax will miss El Hamdaoui this game, but except him Frank de Boer has the whole squad available, just like Preud’homme.

I’m predicting a hard-fought 2-1 win for Ajax. The odds are ok at 1.88, good enough for a 3 units bet. I am also betting on an o2.5 for 2 units at 1.70 on bwin. Honestly I don’t care that much of the outcome of the bet, TODAY I WILL ENJOY THE FOOTBALL!

Ajax to win for 3 units and Over 2.5 goals for 2 units

One comment on “Ajax Amsterdam vs. FC Twente (15.05.2011)

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