It’s time for one of the most dramatic matches this Champions League edition has to offer as AS Roma host Manchester City for the right to decide who join Bayern Munich in the last 16 of the competition. There wouldn’t have been so much at stake for this match had Roma kept their eyes open in the CSKA match and kept their lead until the final whistle. Instead they started celebrating way too quickly and ended up conceding a late equalizer.

Manchester City’s win against Bayern Munich prompted them to success in Premier League, where they keep the pressure on Chelsea by trailing behind them by three points. The Citizens received a heavy blow in the Everton win because they lost Sergio Aguero to injury and it might be months before the striker will be able to return. Toure is suspended and Kompany, Silva and Jovetic are all under doubt. James Milner insisted that: “Losing a player like Sergio will be a big miss for us. Hopefully he’ll be back sooner rather than later, but Edin coming back is a positive, and he’s a fantastic goalscorer.”

Roma’s chances for qualification have not been hurt by the two defeats against Bayern, like many say, but by that late equalizer against a team whose squad is not even half as good as Roma’s. CSKA might not have had a Totti, but Doumbia is the one to slay both Roma and City in the group stage. Roma can qualify only in the event of a goaless draw and if they win provided CSKA lose at Allianz Arena. The Giallorossi come from a 2-2 draw against Sassuolo, but they rested a few key players. Rudi Garcia welcomed Strootman back, all this while Castan will be out for the rest of the season due to a brain surgery he had this week.

Ljajic, Totti and Gervinho should make up Roma’s attacking line if they want their qualification chances increased. Gervinho believes in his team’s qualification chances considering his team are unbeaten at home and in the last five matches they only conceded 4 goals. Manchester City would have to be at the top of their form if they are to work around missing Kompany who has been both a captain and a leader.

A Roma win has 2.50 odds, a Man City one 2.87 and both teams to score has 1.57 odds. The headline offers for both teams have the same odds from William Hill: both Totti to score and Roma to win with Dzeko to score and City to win has 5.00 odds. Manchester City for both halves has 4.60 odds, AS Roma 4.00 and we’re going to bet 7 units on the Citizens to score in the first half with 2.15 odds from the same bookie.

AS Roma: Team’s Formation

Result: -8 units, bet lost

Shakhtar Donetsk make their bid for the first place in group H as they get ready to host last placed team, Athletic Club Bilbao. The visitors have no chance for the knock out stages, but they will push for a Europa League place, against the team that have in their ranks the leading goalscoerer after four match days: Luiz Adriano.

Shakhtar cannot play at home due to Donbass Arena being partially destroyed during political unrest in the region, but they will host Bilbao in Lviv. The Ukrainian team are currently placed second in group H, two points behind Porto, and considering the first leg ended with a goalless draw, Luiz Adriano might want to add some more goals to his tally. To their advantage speaks also the fact that they lost only three of their last 18 matches at home this season, but Mircea Lucescu will be missing on Krivtsov, while Azeveddo is under doubt.

Bilbao sit on the 9th place in La Liga with 15 points out of 12 matches and a negative goal difference. Their only point so far comes from the draw against Shakhtar because the other three games were lost. They have conceded six goals so far, but should be able to rely on Aduriz being back from his hamstring injury, seeing as the player already scored in La Liga last Friday. Seeing as Europa League is their main goal, tipsters wonder whether Gurpegui and Susaeta will be rested as to avoid any potential suspension.

Both teams have points to prove in this match, and even if Shakhtar Donetsk have their qualification almost secured, they will want to bid for the first place regardless of the result Porto will have against BATE. Unibet gives 1.68 odds for an outright Shakhtar Donetsk win, 5.20 for a Bilbao win and a draw has 3.80 odds. The hosts to lead at halfitime has 2.00 odds and over 3.5 goals has 3.50 odds. We are betting 8 units on the hosts scoring in both halves with 2.65 odds from Unibet even if you could also choose a -1.5 handicap for Shakhtar Donetsk with 2.95 odds from the same bookie.

Shakhtar Donetsk: Team’s Formation