Prediction

Liverpool Liverpool FC vs. Manchester United Manchester United

Sunday, March 6th 2011, 14.30 CET

 

This game is definitely Sunday’s highlight for me! I have high hopes that Liverpool wins this one, and I found some sweet odds on Betfred.com at 2.90 for a Liverpool victory. Bwin had it at 2.8, and although most of the times I bet there, I also have accounts on Betfred, Bet365, Betfair and Bet-at-Home. But I keep them in case Bwin doesn’t offer the best odds for what I want to play, and this was one such case. But before I tell you what I bet on, I want to tell you why I did so:

 

LiverpoolLiverpool FC will surely do whatever it takes to win tonight: they already lost 2 times against Manchester United, their arch-rivals in Premier League! They lost their previous match at 3-1 away against West Ham United. This loss however doesn’t reflect the true performance that the Reds displayed in recent games: their last 5 games look like W-W-W-D-L. As an economist, I’d say there is a downward sloping trend visible here, with the most likely outcome being a D in the next game. But this is not economics, and I’m confindent Liverpool will want much more than a draw against Manchester United in front of their own supporters.

The situation in Premier League motivates Liverpool to want this victory more than their rivals today: with 39 points so far in Premier League out of 28 games, Liverpool desperately wants to qualify for the european leagues, so they’ll be fighting for points tonight! They’re in good shape too, no important players missing. And Suarez and Dirk Kuyt are really a power couple in the Reds’s attack, certainly capable of going past any defense in PL.

 

Manchester United is currently on the first place in Premier League with 60 points. A big difference between their 60 and Liverpool’s 39, that’s for sure! And with Arsenal drawing yesterday 0-0 against Sunderland, Manchester keeps the distance at 3 points between the top and Arsenal, the 2nd team in PL. The Red Devils come after a 2-1 loss against Chelsea, so their morale is not the best. They will try to improve their reputation with a victory on Anfield Road, but I think that will be tough.

First off, Manchester United will be playing without two important players:

  • Nemanja Vidic, the Red Devils’ centre back who was sent off in the game against Chelsea in the 92nd minute
  • Rio Ferdinand, the main man in Manchester’s defense, still recovering from an older injury

This makes them very very vulnerable in the defense, and their alternatives are not that bright: they could be using Chris Smalling, the 21-year old defender who joined this season from Fulham. Or they could go for Rafael, the 20-year old Brazilian right-back (who has a twin brother playing for Man Utd as well, btw). However, they are much too young to bear the pressure of such a duel, and Patrice Evra will have to carry most of the weight of Kuyt and Suarez’s attacks on his shoulders.

Given Manchester United’s sloppy defense and Liverpool’s strong motivation, I’ll bet 5 units on Liverpool at 2.9 on Betfred. Just to be safe, I’m going to bet 2 units on both teams to score at odds of 1.8. I’m sure there’s going to be hell released tonight on Anfield Road, so it’s a pretty safe bet to assume goals on both sides.

Fingers crossed!

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