SSC Napoli vs. Inter Milan
Saturday, May 14th 2011, 15.30 CET
Unlike the Ajax vs. Twente game, the Serie A clash between SSC Napoli and Inter Milan is not at all as dramatic. Sure, they are the 2nd and 3rd teams in Serie A this season, but they won’t win or lose too much regardless of what happens in this game. I decided to put a sports bet on this game because it’s my opinion that only when there is no pressure involved you can truly see football happening. And so, if I won’t be over-celebrating Ajax’s victory later in the day, I will watch the Italian show.
My football bet on this soccer game will be small, 3 units. That’s why I won’t elaborate too much on the two teams. I am sure you are familiar with them, especially with Inter. Both teams have had a good season, both of them are already qualified for next season’s Champions League, and both teams will play for “fun” today (4 points difference between the two).
SSC Napoli are in worse shape than Inter Milan, morale-wise. Out of their last 6 games, they won 3 and lost 3. They come after an embarassing defeat against Lecce (placed 17th in Serie A) 2-1. They lost 10 times, won 21 times and drew 5 times this season. Goal-wise, SSC Napoli both scored and conceded fewer goals than Inter Milan (56-36 to 65-40). This clearly shows the defensive style of the Southern Italians. Unfortunately for Napoli, their top goalscorer Edinson Cavani won’t be joining the team today since he is suspended. Same goes for Giuseppe Mascara.
Inter Milan, on the other hand, will not be able to count on Wesley Sneijder, out with a thigh injury. It is also possible that Dejan Stankovic will be out. But looking at the value of the players in Inter’s squad, I am sure the Nerazzurri can compensate for them. They’re in great shape, winning their last 3 games, and although they didn’t manage to win everything like they did last season under Mourinho, I think their fans are content with their favourites. I have some doubts on Inter Milan’s away performances: out of 65 goals scored this season, they only scored 20 away. And they haven’t scored at all during their last four matches against SSC Napoli at San Paolo.
Out of their last five games head-to-head, Inter won 3 times (all of them while playing in Milan), Napoli won once (at home) and there was a scoreless draw (in Napoli). This tells us something about Inter’s lack of confidence when playing away. I am going to capitalize on that with a soccer bet on Napoli to win. The bookies don’t pick favourites, with each team valued at 3.5 odds. Most people expect a draw, which could well be. The value for that is 1.95, so not bad. My football prediction and soccer tip or sports betting tip is 2 units on Napoli, and one unit on a draw.
Napoli to win for 2 units, and draw for one unit