Ivo Karlović vs. Jimmy Wang (recap)


Ivo Karlovic Ivo Karlović vs. Jimmy Wang Jimmy Wang

Thursday, August 28th 2012, 16.00 CET

The Taiwanese tennis player Jimmy Wang has defeated his opponent, Ivo Karlović, which implies that I have lost the 5 units I bet. The former No. 14, Ivo Karlović, could only resist 3 hours and 3 minutes on the tennis court.

I felt really sorry for him, judging by the fact that his 32 aces – the most served by any other player in the tournament – were not enough for him to achieve a victory. The score was also pretty dramatic. Karlović won the first set at tiebreak, and then Wang won the next three, and this was how the final score eventually looked like: 7-6(3), 6-7(8), 6-1, 6-4.

In fact, since June 2011, this was the first victory of Wang over a top-100 player, so this result was a bit unpredictable judging by the statistics, and also by the current positions of the players in the ATP ranking. Moreover, the two surgeries he undergone led him to a slow evolution between 2007 and 2010. Fortunately, he seems to make an imposing comeback. Regarding the given situation, he affirmed that his goal is to reach the top 100 and get better results than ever before (his highest position in the ATP ranking was 85 six years ago).

Result: -5 units, bet lost

Tennis on 13.03.2011 – recap


Ryan Sweeting Ryan Sweeting vs. Juan Monaco Juan Monaco

This is the first tennis match that I record on this blog in which I lose my bet 🙁 I really underestimated Sweeting in this post. I ignored too much the fact that the american was playing on home soil (the crowds loved him, I’ve heard). I watched a short analysis on the news this morning, since I didn’t watch the game (it was at 1.30AM here in Holland).

Statistics-wise, the game is surprisingly balanced, although this is not reflected in the score: 61 06 61. By the way, if you want a site with really good statistics and live tickers, click here. The score reflects really strange performances from both players: After losing 6 to 1 in the first set, Monaco comes back into the game and wins 6 to 0 the second one, only to lose 6 to 1 the last and decisive set! I really wished I watched this because I don’t understand what happened.

I suppose it mostly had to do with the fact that Monaco missed 8 out of 11 break points, while Sweeting missed only 4 out of 9. But overall, very few aces (2 for each player), just one double foul (unlike the Nieminen – Montanes game) and very balanced statistics. I don’t know, I’ll just wait for a more detailed report to appear on the web. Yesterday there was no sign of anything, all I found were statistics and a quick discussion on menstennisforums.com. Oh, and I lost my bet here: I had bet 2 units on a win by Monaco.

Bellucci/Harrison vs. Cilic/Karlovic

This game was broadcasted at the same time (1.30AM), so I didn’t see it live, I watched a replay this morning. I did anticipate it right though, and Bwin gave me 1.8 units for my prediction 😀 The game had a score of 64 36 810, so you could say it was rather intense. As I anticipated in this post, the Croatians worked better together and bravely faced the tension towards the end of the game.

The first set started with the croatians taking advantage at 3-1, but the pair Thomasz Bellucci / Ryan Harrison came back into the game and brought the score at 4-4. However, Cilic and Karlovic won the following two games and won the set. There were a lot of aces in this set: 2 for Cilic/Karlovic and 3 for Bellucci/Harrison.

The second set had as many aces as the first one, with the same proportion. Here, however, Bellucci and Harrison started to take advantage after the game equitably got to 3-3. And this despite the fact that the winning pair lost 2 break points.

The last set was undoubtedly the most intense, ending at 8-10. Here, handling the pressure was the decisive factor. No ace, no double faults, no break points and nerves extended to the max! Bellucci and Harrison just lost it towards the end and the experienced Karlovic was key to the Croatians’ success. Great game overall, too bad it took so much time of my morning 😀

Tennis on 12.03.2011 – recap


Tommy Robredo Tommy Robredo vs. Mischa Zverev Mischa Zverev

Man hon have I underestimated Zverev in this post! The game was really tight, with Robredo winning in the last set. The score was 63 36 75 and the battle was intense! In the end, I have to admit, Robredo was the better player. He had 4 aces in the first set, but also 3 double faults. He still won the first set easily though.

The second set was Zverev’s, and this is how I won my bet! It had the same score, 6-3, but this time for Zverev. Robredo still made 3 double fouls in this one, while Zverev only one. And if Robredo dominated the first serve wins in the first set, Zverev clearly dominated the second one. Robredo won just one break point out of 6 in this set, which is surprising to be honest. Zverev lost just 2 out of 4 break points and this largely contributed to him winning the set.

The last set was definitely the most intense. It ended at 7-5 for Robredo, bringing him the victory. In this set I tend to think Zverev was the better player, with 3 aces, more first serves than his opponent and 8/10 break points saved! This means Robredo won just 2 break points out of 10! That really added tension to this set! In the end though, Robredo didn’t let Zverev get past 5 games and beat him at 7-5. Enjoyable game, I must say! And I won 2.82 units here. Thanks Zverev!

Jarkkp Nieminen Jarkko Nieminen vs. Albert Montanes Albert Montanes

This game, like the previous one, was also decided in the last set. The final score was 76 26 76. Albert Montanes made a lot of “forbiden” mistakes, like his 8 double faults! Statistically, I’d say the Finnish looks better (in all sets he won 6 games!), but this is not what matters: Montanes sneaked the victory in the last set and goes through in the tournament.

The first set, won by Montanes, was rather balanced. Montanes had 3 double faults and missed a break point. The second set saw Nieminen in a clearly better form: 3 aces and 4 break points saved out of four! He won by a large difference at 6-2. In the last set too, I think Nieminen was better. Montanes made 4 double faults here, but he did save 3 break points out of 4. Good game from both players, and financially it went well too: I anticipated Montanes to win and thus got 1.23 units back from Bwin!

Tennis tomorrow (13.03.2011)


Apart from the games described in this thread, which will take place today, I’m betting on 2 others for tomorrow. They’re also part of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and one of them is a double 🙂 However, due to the large time difference between the US and Europe, these matches will take place at 1.30 AM Central Europe Time. I won’t be watching thus, but that doesn’t stop me from betting 😀

Ryan Sweeting Ryan Sweeting vs. Juan MonacoJuan Monaco

For the Head-to-Head analysis for this game, please click here. As you can see, Monaco (30) is a lot higher ranked than Sweeting (105). And pretty much all statistics favour Monaco. However, Sweeting is 3 years younger than the Argentinian, and he’s playing on home soil. This could be decisive in this game, and in tennis, maybe more than in football, everything is possible.

Sweeting has been constantly growing since turning professional in 2007. He’s constatly improved his ranking, ending on 116th in 2010. Now he’s on 105, so he caught up some more ground since the start of the year. He’s fast, familiar with hard ground play and he plays at home.

Juan Monaco, on the other hand, has had some up and downs rankings-wise in the past few years: he peaked in 2008 when he was impressively ranked 14th, but ended the year on the 47th position, while a year before he was 23rd. Nevertheless, since 2008 he slowly improved: ranked 30th in 2009 and 26th last year. The fact that now he’s 4 places worse than last year does not make a huge difference in the table, but it does count morale-wise. He has enough experience though, so the morale shouldn’t be too much of a bother.

My play? I chose to go with Juan Monaco for 2 units at 1.85 odds on Bwin. I would’ve gone for Sweeting to win at least one set, but the bet was not available on Bwin, unfortunately. If you find it though, I’d suggest you stake on it.

Monaco to win for 2 units

 Bellucci/Harrison vs. Cilic/Karlovic

Thomasz Bellucci and Ryan Harrison have played many times before together. They’re not really at the same level, though: the Brazilian is more experienced and higher ranked. Bellucci is ranked 29th and he’s only 23 years old! A promissing player whose rankings slowly increased from 578 in 2006 to 31 at the end of last year. Ryan Harrison, on the other hand is much younger at 18 years old, and much lower in the rankings as well. Currently he’s on the 152nd place in the singles ranking, but he increased a lot in recent years: he was ranked 742nd in 2007!

Although they’re both very young and promissing, experience will certainly have its say today. And the other team is much more experienced. They will be fighting hard, and maybe their stamina and fast serves will bring them victory, but they wouldn’t be able to handle too much pressure towards the end, especially if the last set is the decisive one.

Turning now to the opposite team, we have two experienced Croatian players. Marin Cilic is one of the best (if not THE) Croatian player, currently ranked 20th. He’s only 22 years old but he turned pro in 2005, the same year Thomasz Bellucci did. A very promissing youngster for the Croatian team. He was spectacular last year, so far as reaching the 9th position in February. Overall, he’s been rather constant rankings-wise, ending 2009 and 2010 on the 14th place.

Ivo Karlovic, on the other hand, is a player whose years of glory are already past him. He was fantastic in 2007 and 2008, and was even ranked 14th in August 2008. However, since that time he’s been constantly decreasing both in rankings and in importance. The Croats started to look at Cilic as their best player now, and Karlovic has slowly faded away. Much like it happened with the Romanians Pavel and Hanescu. At 32 years however, he’s seen a lot and he plays very well along with his Croatian partner.

In this match, I would say the Croatian team is more homogeneous, and with a very experienced Karlovic, they have what it takes to endure both pressure and duration. I would stake 2 units on this team, I found odds of 1.9 on Bwin and I’m going to take that.

Cilic/Karlovic to win for 2 units

Tennis today (12.03.2011)


The BNP Paribas Open began on Thursday but I didn’t get to see much of it, honestly. Lots of uni assignments in the past week. However, I’m clear for the weekend and I have some bets in mind for the ATP World Tour Masters category in Indian Wells, USA 😀

The open lasts for 10 days, so that’s until the 2oth this month, hard surface, lots of top players and both single and double games. Exciting stuff for a gambler, that’s for sure. And as I’m trying to reach a balance between football and tennis bets, I’m going to bet on lots of tennis games this weekend.

A pity, though, that the two matches for today overlap with some football ones. But today tennis is king. Well, at least I’ll get to see about half of the Sevilla vs. Barcelona game (hopefully!). SO, here are my bets:

Tomy Robredo Tommy Robredo vs. Mischa Zverev Mischa Zverev

For this game, I’d suggest you check the head to head comparison here. Clearly the Spaniard’s numbers are better, he’s more experienced and he won more in his life than the Russian-born German. Robredo is number 28, while Zverev is 102. I really don’t think there are many chances for Robredo to lose this one.

However, Robredo did fall a lot in the rankings since 2009 (when he was ranked 16th), while Zverev more or less stayed constant. That’s maybe one of the most obvious traits of the German, his consistency.

The odds for a Robredo win aren’t attractive at all, only at 1.15. However, if you bet that Zverev wins at least one set, odds are 2.41 on Bwin. I’d say that’s well worth it for a player like Zverev. Hence my bet:

Zverev to win at least one set for 2 units

Jarkko Nieminen Jarkko Niemine  vs. Albert Montanes Albert Montanes

Again, if you want to check the heads up statistics, click here. The players are more or less evenly matched, with a rankings advantage for Montanes. I’ve seen him play several times last year and I wasn’t disappointed. Good serve, fast and knows where to stand in his side of the pitch.

I haven’t seen much of Jarkko Nieminen though. He’s ranked 51st, lower than Montanes’ 26, and STILL, the bookies (Bwin) give him a higher chance of winning. I’m looking on Bwin now, odds are 1.58 – 2.23. I haven’t kept a close eye on the tennis world lately, I admit, but this doesn’t seem right.

I’m going to bet small here, 1 unit on Montanes.

Montanes to win for 1 unit